The School of Odds
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Brandon Adams v Caoimhin Agyarko

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brandon Adams (Local)

Prediction 78.78%1.27fair odd
EV +0.054%
Edge +0.043%
Kelly +0.201%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.40%78.48%79.23%81.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.191.2785.47%82.87%83.68%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Caoimhin Agyarko (Visit)

Prediction 21.22%4.71fair odd
EV +6.09%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.093%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%21.52%20.77%25.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.694.384.505.0027.10%22.83%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brandon Adams (Local): 78.78%; Caoimhin Agyarko (Visit): 21.22%. For Caoimhin Agyarko (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.09%.

13 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -7.82%E -6.69%K -46.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +6.09%E +1.22%K +1.52%G +0.093%5.5%2026-04-08 18:34
theScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -7.82%E -6.69%K -46.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +6.09%E +1.22%K +1.52%G +0.093%5.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.82%E -6.69%K -46.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -2.40%E -0.522%K -0.667%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 12:30
Bet Right🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.67%E -3.86%K -22.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.52%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 02:10
BetUS🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.46%E -4.55%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.52%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 01:20
PlayUp🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -6.25%E -5.25%K -32.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.52%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 20:00
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.04%E -5.96%K -39.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.52%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 09:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -6.25%E -5.25%K -32.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -7.71%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 02:09
BetMGM🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.46%E -4.55%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -8.13%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 14:29
Pinnacle🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.63%EV -0.734%E -0.582%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.37%EV -17.04%E -4.36%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-10 16:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.40%EV +0.054%E +0.043%K +0.201%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.60%EV -21.71%E -5.88%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 21:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.40%EV +0.054%E +0.043%K +0.201%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.60%EV -21.71%E -5.88%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 21:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (13)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 75.11%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.23%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%4.0%2026-04-10 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 75.11%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.23%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%4.0%2026-04-10 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 75.11%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.23%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%4.0%2026-04-10 10:10
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.41%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.19%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.40%7.8%2026-04-09 20:00
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.41%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.19%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.40%7.8%2026-04-09 20:00
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.28%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.93%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%8.5%2026-04-09 21:54
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.27%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.33%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.40%8.9%2026-04-10 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.47%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%10.1%2026-04-09 16:10
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.47%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%10.1%2026-04-09 16:10
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.18%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.85%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%10.5%2026-04-09 20:00
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.78%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.94%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.28%11.4%2026-04-08 09:40
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.20%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.56%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.24%12.3%2026-04-06 13:15
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.20%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.56%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.24%12.3%2026-04-08 17:14