The School of Odds
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Austin Aukuso v Wulamu Tulake

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 07:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austin Aukuso (Local)

Prediction 87.41%1.14fair odd
EV -7.35%
Edge -6.93%
Kelly -122.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.41%87.41%87.41%88.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.041.041.0696.15%95.69%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wulamu Tulake (Visit)

Prediction 8.26%12.10fair odd
EV -0.832%
Edge -0.069%
Kelly -0.076%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.82%8.26%8.26%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0011.2511.0012.009.09%8.89%9.09%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.33%23.10fair odd
EV +12.55%
Edge +0.483%
Kelly +0.502%
Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.53%4.33%4.33%4.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0024.7526.0026.004.76%4.04%3.85%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Austin Aukuso (Local): 87.41%; Wulamu Tulake (Visit): 8.26%; Draw: 4.33%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.10. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.57%EV -7.35%E -6.93%K -122.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV -0.832%E -0.069%K -0.076%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +12.55%E +0.483%K +0.502%G +0.063%6.5%2026-04-19 09:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.14%EV -9.10%E -8.75%K -227.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -9.10%E -0.827%K -0.910%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV +12.55%E +0.483%K +0.502%G +0.063%9.1%2026-04-19 09:25
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.14%EV -9.10%E -8.75%K -227.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -9.10%E -0.827%K -0.910%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV +12.55%E +0.483%K +0.502%G +0.063%9.1%2026-04-19 09:30
Betway🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.41%EV -9.10%E -8.75%K -227.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -9.10%E -0.827%K -0.910%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -9.10%E -0.433%K -0.455%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 93.18%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.17%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.66%5.2%2026-04-23 02:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 93.18%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.17%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.66%5.2%2026-04-23 02:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 93.18%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.17%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.66%5.2%2026-04-23 02:44