The School of Odds
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Arturo Cardenas v Jordan Martinez

Kickoff: 2026-06-14 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arturo Cardenas (Local)

Prediction 44.55%2.24fair odd
EV +3.35%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +2.54%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.66%44.23%44.85%46.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.122.3250.00%46.34%47.17%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jordan Martinez (Visit)

Prediction 55.45%1.80fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.48%55.77%55.15%59.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.661.651.7462.89%60.16%60.61%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arturo Cardenas (Local): 44.55%; Jordan Martinez (Visit): 55.45%. For Arturo Cardenas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.35%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV +3.35%E +1.44%K +2.54%G +0.085%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -11.83%E -7.44%K -20.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-14 01:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV +3.35%E +1.44%K +2.54%G +0.085%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -11.83%E -7.44%K -20.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-14 01:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.00%E -0.908%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.50%E -5.15%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-14 01:30
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.93%EV -2.89%E -1.33%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.07%EV -9.06%E -5.52%K -14.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-14 01:30
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%EV -5.56%E -2.62%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.84%EV -10.72%E -6.66%K -17.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-14 01:50
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.45%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.51%E -2.02%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-14 01:30
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.45%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.17%E -3.03%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-14 01:49
FanDuel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%EV -7.34%E -3.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%EV -6.28%E -3.72%K -9.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-14 01:50
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -10.91%E -5.45%K -10.91%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -3.51%E -2.02%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-14 01:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%8.0%2026-06-14 01:30
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.94%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.56%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%9.8%2026-06-14 01:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.94%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.56%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%9.8%2026-06-14 01:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.94%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.56%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%9.8%2026-06-14 01:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.94%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.56%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%9.8%2026-06-14 01:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.94%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.56%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%9.8%2026-06-14 01:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.35%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.58%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%9.8%2026-06-14 01:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.35%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.58%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%9.8%2026-06-14 01:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 38.62%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.43%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.95%10.7%2026-06-14 01:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 38.62%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.43%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.95%10.7%2026-06-14 01:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 38.62%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.43%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.95%10.7%2026-06-14 01:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.70%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.77%12.0%2026-06-14 01:50
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.70%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.77%12.0%2026-06-14 01:50
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.70%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.77%12.0%2026-06-14 01:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.70%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.54%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.77%12.0%2026-06-14 01:50
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.66%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.65%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.69%13.1%2026-06-14 01:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.99%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.36%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.65%13.7%2026-06-14 01:50