The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Arar Andales v Raito Kataoka

Kickoff: 2026-10-29 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arar Andales (Local)

Prediction 14.42%6.93fair odd
EV +5.13%
Edge +0.703%
Kelly +0.815%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 7.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.11%14.42%14.42%15.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.646.647.2916.67%15.05%15.05%13.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Raito Kataoka (Visit)

Prediction 85.58%1.17fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -3.71%
Kelly -34.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.27%85.58%85.58%86.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.111.111.1290.91%90.09%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arar Andales (Local): 14.42%; Raito Kataoka (Visit): 85.58%. For Arar Andales (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.29, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.13%.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯7.29I 13.72%NM 13.11%EV +5.13%E +0.703%K +0.815%G +0.042%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.89%EV -5.86%E -5.33%K -58.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-28 17:45
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.48%E -2.25%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.15%E -3.71%K -34.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-29 09:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.55%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.17%7.6%2026-10-29 08:00
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.28%11.4%2026-10-28 11:40
Coral🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.94%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.78%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.28%11.4%2026-10-26 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.94%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.78%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.28%11.4%2026-10-26 13:25
Betway🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.15%1.14I 87.72%NM 77.93%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.92%12.6%2026-10-29 01:54
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.00%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.34%12.6%2026-10-29 07:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.00%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.34%12.6%2026-10-29 08:00