The School of Odds

Anthony Joshua v Tyson Fury

2026-12-31 22:55 UTC — Boxing

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Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Anthony Joshua (Local)

Prediction 41.89%2.39fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.849%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.76%41.89%41.89%42.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.212.262.252.3445%44%44%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tyson Fury (Visit)

Prediction 58.11%1.72fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -6.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.25%58.11%58.11%59.24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.631.631.6563%61%61%61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

11 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -1.99%E -0.849%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -6.44%E -4.00%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 11:54
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.66%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.02%E -4.39%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 06:45
BetOnline.ag2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -7.43%E -3.36%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-24 20:05
LowVig.ag2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -7.43%E -3.36%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-24 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 36.50%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.13%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.6%2026-04-12 08:34
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 38.86%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.18%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%11.9%2026-04-11 22:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 43.21%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.34%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.45%14.6%2026-07-25 10:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 43.21%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.34%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.45%14.6%2026-07-25 10:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 43.21%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.34%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.45%14.6%2026-07-25 10:45
Unibet2.23I 44.84%NM 38.04%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.44%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.52%17.9%2026-07-13 11:25
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 38.04%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.44%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.52%17.9%2026-07-13 11:24
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 38.04%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.44%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.52%17.9%2026-07-13 11:25
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 38.04%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.44%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.52%17.9%2026-07-13 11:25
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 38.04%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.44%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.52%17.9%2026-07-13 11:24
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 38.04%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.44%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.52%17.9%2026-07-13 11:25