The School of Odds
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Anthony Cuba v Misael Cabrera

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anthony Cuba (Local)

Prediction 61.32%1.63fair odd
EV +2.41%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +3.59%
Growth +0.087%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.51%60.64%61.40%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.531.6766.67%64.66%65.36%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Misael Cabrera (Visit)

Prediction 38.68%2.59fair odd
EV +2.50%
Edge +0.942%
Kelly +1.51%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%39.36%38.60%43.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.402.422.6546.08%41.64%41.32%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anthony Cuba (Local): 61.32%; Misael Cabrera (Visit): 38.68%. For Misael Cabrera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.50%.

5 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV +2.41%E +1.44%K +3.59%G +0.087%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -16.07%E -7.41%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV +2.41%E +1.44%K +3.59%G +0.087%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -16.07%E -7.41%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 19:50
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -6.40%E -2.64%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 19:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -5.56%E -3.61%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -7.95%E -3.34%K -5.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 12:54
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.31%E -1.32%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 12:55
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.17%E -2.99%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-16 21:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.17%E -2.99%K -5.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 18:25
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -6.79%E -4.47%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.24%E -2.14%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-17 10:45
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.77%EV -7.40%E -4.90%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.23%EV -5.63%E -2.31%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 14:00
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +2.50%E +0.942%K +1.51%G +0.038%4.4%2026-07-18 13:10
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.73%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -6.40%E -2.64%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-18 11:05
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.73%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -6.40%E -2.64%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-18 11:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (5)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.53%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%8.8%2026-07-17 13:05
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.03%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%8.9%2026-07-18 09:24
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.61%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.05%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%10.1%2026-07-17 01:29
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.38%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%13.1%2026-07-17 13:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.38%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%13.1%2026-07-17 13:05