The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Anthony Cuba v Jair Valtierra

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anthony Cuba (Local)

Prediction 71.40%1.40fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -8.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.51%71.40%71.40%73.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.331.331.3677.52%75.47%75.47%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jair Valtierra (Visit)

Prediction 28.60%3.50fair odd
EV +1.25%
Edge +0.352%
Kelly +0.491%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.71%28.60%28.60%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.373.5432.26%29.90%29.67%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anthony Cuba (Local): 71.40%; Jair Valtierra (Visit): 28.60%. For Jair Valtierra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.29%EV -7.89%E -6.12%K -27.22%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.71%EV +1.25%E +0.352%K +0.491%G +0.006%5.8%2026-03-21 22:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.29%EV -7.89%E -6.12%K -27.22%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.71%EV +1.25%E +0.352%K +0.491%G +0.006%5.8%2026-03-21 22:24
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.90%E -2.13%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.48%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 14:24
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.90%E -2.13%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.34%E -3.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 15:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.