Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.25
assuming max odds 1.83
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Andres Cortes (Local): 45.81%; Eridson Garcia (Visit): 54.19%. For Andres Cortes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.07%.
10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV +3.07%E +1.36%K +2.46%G +0.075% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -11.67%E -7.16%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -1.51%E -0.703%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -8.42%E -4.98%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -9.76%E -4.95%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -3.00%E -1.67%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -9.76%E -4.95%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -3.00%E -1.67%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -16.17%E -8.84%K -19.48%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -0.829%E -0.453%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.85% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.39% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.76% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.85% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.39% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.76% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.85% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.39% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.76% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.60% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.43% | 8.3% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.49% | 10.1% | 2026-04-06 02:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.81% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97% | 10.3% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.05% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.50% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.45% | 10.7% | 2026-04-06 02:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.05% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.50% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.45% | 10.7% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.93% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.28% | 11.3% | 2026-04-06 02:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.48% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.57% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.95% | 12.1% | 2026-04-06 02:44 |