The School of Odds
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Amari Jones v Vincenzo Gualtieri

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 03:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Amari Jones (Local)

Prediction 89.89%1.11fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -4.45%
Kelly -78.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.30%90.32%90.13%93.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.0698.04%96.29%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vincenzo Gualtieri (Visit)

Prediction 10.11%9.90fair odd
EV +51.58%
Edge +3.44%
Kelly +3.68%
Growth +1.90%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.37%9.68%9.87%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.779.5015.0012.50%9.28%10.53%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Amari Jones (Local): 89.89%; Vincenzo Gualtieri (Visit): 10.11%. For Vincenzo Gualtieri (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.90. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +51.58%.

4 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -8.31%E -8.14%K -415.38%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +51.58%E +3.44%K +3.68%G +1.90%4.7%2026-05-23 03:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -8.31%E -8.14%K -415.38%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +51.58%E +3.44%K +3.68%G +1.90%4.7%2026-05-23 03:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -7.41%E -7.19%K -246.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +1.05%E +0.105%K +0.117%G +0.001%7.1%2026-05-23 03:10
BetUS🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.61%E -5.34%K -112.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -4.00%E -0.421%K -0.470%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 03:02
theScore Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.51%E -6.26%K -162.74%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -4.00%E -0.421%K -0.470%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 03:09
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.89%EV -5.61%E -5.34%K -112.22%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.11%EV -15.11%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 03:09
DraftKings🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.71%E -4.45%K -78.53%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -19.16%E -2.39%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 03:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%6.9%2026-05-23 03:09
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.94%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.59%7.3%2026-05-23 03:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.94%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.59%7.3%2026-05-23 03:09
1xBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 86.46%10.70I 9.35%NM 8.40%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.14%11.2%2026-05-23 03:02