The School of Odds
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Adelaida Ruiz v Ginny Fuchs

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaida Ruiz (Local)

Prediction 53.36%1.87fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.41%53.36%53.36%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.761.761.8057.47%56.66%56.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ginny Fuchs (Visit)

Prediction 46.64%2.14fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -4.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%46.64%46.64%47.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.012.022.0551.02%49.63%49.38%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaida Ruiz (Local): 53.36%; Ginny Fuchs (Visit): 46.64%. For Adelaida Ruiz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -3.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

4 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.95%E -2.19%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.72%E -3.36%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 08:30
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -5.02%E -2.82%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 18:55
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.15%E -4.11%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-18 23:15
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.15%E -4.11%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-18 23:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.31%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%10.0%2026-07-17 14:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 27.46%2.44I 40.98%NM 21.38%1.02I 98.04%NM 51.15%91.7%2026-07-18 23:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 27.46%2.44I 40.98%NM 21.38%1.02I 98.04%NM 51.15%91.7%2026-07-18 23:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 27.46%2.44I 40.98%NM 21.38%1.02I 98.04%NM 51.15%91.7%2026-07-18 23:50