The School of Odds

Adelaida Ruiz v Ginny Fuchs

2026-07-18 23:00 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

2 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Adelaida Ruiz (Local)

Prediction 46.42%2.15fair odd
EV -6.23%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -6.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.42%46.42%46.42%46.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.022.022.022.0250%50%50%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Ginny Fuchs (Visit)

Prediction 53.58%1.87fair odd
EV -6.23%
Edge -3.56%
Kelly -8.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.58%53.58%53.58%53.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.751.751.751.7557%57%57%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -6.23%E -3.09%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 08:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.95%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%8.4%2026-07-12 08:34
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.10%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.10%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%13.1%2026-07-12 08:34