Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Xavier Musketeers v Creighton Bluejays

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

24%

76%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Xavier Musketeers (Local)

Prediction 24.33%4.11fair odd

EV +4.60%

Edge +1.07%

Kelly +1.40%

Growth +0.064%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.38%24.39%24.29%26.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.553.833.804.3028.17%26.09%26.32%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Creighton Bluejays (Visit)

Prediction 75.67%1.32fair odd

EV -2.38%

Edge -1.85%

Kelly -8.21%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.35%75.61%75.71%77.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.231.241.241.2981.30%80.36%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Xavier Musketeers (Local): 24.33%; Creighton Bluejays (Visit): 75.67%. For Xavier Musketeers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV +4.60%E +1.07%K +1.40%G +0.064%	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -6.17%E -4.97%K -25.69%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-03-01 17:44
theScore Bet🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -6.17%E -4.97%K -25.69%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-01 16:24
FanDuel🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.92%E -5.63%K -30.10%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-01 16:24
Fliff🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -6.34%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%EV -6.92%E -5.63%K -30.10%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-03-01 17:45
BetMGM🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.41%E -4.33%K -21.63%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-01 17:59
BetRivers🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.92%E -5.63%K -30.10%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-01 17:59
Bally Bet🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.92%E -5.63%K -30.10%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-01 17:59
Unibet🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -12.42%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.65%E -3.69%K -17.89%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-01 16:30
Fanatics🎯	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -13.64%E -3.84%K -5.35%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -2.38%E -1.85%K -8.21%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-03-01 17:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%	3.3%	2026-03-01 18:00