Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wichita St Shockers v North Texas Mean Green

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wichita St Shockers (Local)

Prediction 12.12%8.25fair odd
EV +9.04%
Edge +1.00%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.102%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.36%12.12%12.30%13.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.308.559.0014.29%12.05%11.70%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Texas Mean Green (Visit)

Prediction 87.88%1.14fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -22.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.31%87.88%87.70%89.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.061.061.1196.15%93.90%94.79%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wichita St Shockers (Local): 12.12%; North Texas Mean Green (Visit): 87.88%. For Wichita St Shockers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.25. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +9.04%E +1.00%K +1.13%G +0.102%1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -7.72%E -7.35%K -154.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-03 19:05
Bally Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +9.04%E +1.00%K +1.13%G +0.102%1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -7.72%E -7.35%K -154.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-03 19:05
BetRivers🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV +9.04%E +1.00%K +1.13%G +0.102%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -8.60%E -8.27%K -215.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 19:05
Fliff🎯8.10I 12.35%NM 11.57%EV -1.87%E -0.230%K -0.263%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.43%EV -6.84%E -6.45%K -114.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-03 21:05
Fanatics🎯7.70I 12.99%NM 12.30%EV -6.71%E -0.872%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.70%EV -5.08%E -4.71%K -63.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 23:49
BetMGM🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -15.19%E -2.17%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -2.45%E -2.21%K -22.25%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-03 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17%1.7%2026-03-03 23:55