Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Virginia Mountaineers v Colorado Buffaloes

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Virginia Mountaineers (Local)

Prediction 79.84%1.25fair odd

EV -2.59%

Edge -2.13%

Kelly -11.79%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.29%79.71%79.83%80.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.171.191.191.2285.47%84.18%84.39%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Colorado Buffaloes (Visit)

Prediction 20.16%4.96fair odd

EV -1.22%

Edge -0.250%

Kelly -0.314%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.54%20.29%20.17%21.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.404.634.604.9022.73%21.57%21.74%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Virginia Mountaineers (Local): 79.84%; Colorado Buffaloes (Visit): 20.16%. For Colorado Buffaloes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.90, with an expected value of -1.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.59%E -2.13%K -11.79%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -11.30%E -2.57%K -3.32%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-07 17:55
Fanatics🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.19%E -3.49%K -20.95%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -3.24%E -0.675%K -0.852%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-07 19:19
Caesars🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.19%E -3.49%K -20.95%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -4.25%E -0.894%K -1.13%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-07 17:35
DraftKings🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.99%E -4.19%K -26.26%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -1.22%E -0.250%K -0.314%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-07 19:15
Fliff🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -4.99%E -4.19%K -26.26%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -11.30%E -2.57%K -3.32%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-07 22:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.79%E -4.90%K -32.15%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.27%E -1.58%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-07 19:19
Unibet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.79%E -4.90%K -32.15%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.27%E -1.58%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-07 22:44
Bally Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.79%E -4.90%K -32.15%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.27%E -1.58%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-07 22:45
FanDuel🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -6.59%E -5.63%K -38.74%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -5.26%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-07 19:19
BetRivers🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.59%E -5.63%K -38.74%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -7.27%E -1.58%K -2.02%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-07 22:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17%	5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%	1.0%	2026-03-07 23:24
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 82.58%	4.74I 21.10%NM 17.42%	21.1%	2026-03-07 21:35