The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Virginia Cavaliers v North Carolina Tar Heels

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Virginia Cavaliers (Local)

Prediction 39.95%2.50fair odd
EV -0.124%
Edge -0.050%
Kelly -0.083%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%39.84%40.33%40.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.362.352.5043.48%42.33%42.55%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Carolina Tar Heels (Visit)

Prediction 60.05%1.67fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -4.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.19%60.16%59.67%61.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.571.6265.79%63.42%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virginia Cavaliers (Local): 39.95%; North Carolina Tar Heels (Visit): 60.05%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.503. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.500, with an expected value of -0.124%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -0.124%E -0.050%K -0.083%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -6.32%E -4.05%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 16:15
FanDuel🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -3.32%E -1.37%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -8.72%E -5.74%K -16.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 20:20
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.12%E -1.72%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.72%E -1.68%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-26 18:05
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -6.12%E -2.60%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.72%E -1.68%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-26 22:39
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.12%E -2.60%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.52%E -2.84%K -7.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-26 16:40
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -7.32%E -3.15%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.12%E -3.24%K -8.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-26 19:20
Bally Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -7.32%E -3.15%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -5.72%E -3.64%K -10.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-26 19:20
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.11%E -3.53%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.72%E -3.64%K -10.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 16:40
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.11%E -3.53%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.32%E -4.05%K -11.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-26 22:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%4.1%2026-02-26 23:39
Novig◎2.41I 41.49%NM 38.21%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.79%8.6%2026-02-26 20:19