The School of College Oddsodds.college
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UTSA Roadrunners v Incarnate Word Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UTSA Roadrunners (Local)

Prediction 89.29%1.12fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -3.31%
Kelly -44.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.41%89.14%88.91%90.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.0897.09%94.54%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 10.71%9.33fair odd
EV +7.14%
Edge +0.714%
Kelly +0.794%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.58%10.86%11.09%12.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.949.5010.0013.33%11.18%10.53%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UTSA Roadrunners (Local): 89.29%; Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit): 10.71%. For Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.33. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -5.36%E -5.05%K -89.29%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +7.14%E +0.714%K +0.794%G +0.057%4.3%2026-11-11 14:58
Unibet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -6.25%E -5.95%K -125.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +1.79%E +0.188%K +0.210%G +0.004%5.8%2026-11-11 13:35
Bally Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -6.25%E -5.95%K -125.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +1.79%E +0.188%K +0.210%G +0.004%5.8%2026-11-11 13:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -6.25%E -5.95%K -125.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +1.79%E +0.188%K +0.210%G +0.004%5.8%2026-11-11 14:10
BetRivers🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -8.04%E -7.80%K -267.86%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV +1.79%E +0.188%K +0.210%G +0.004%7.6%2026-11-11 13:35
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.57%E -3.31%K -44.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -8.93%E -1.05%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-11 14:50
theScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.36%E -5.05%K -89.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -8.93%E -1.05%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-11 14:55
William Hill🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.36%E -5.05%K -89.29%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -14.29%E -1.79%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-11 14:55
BetMGM🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.57%E -3.31%K -44.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -19.64%E -2.62%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-11 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%0.9%2026-11-11 16:45
Novig◎1.05I 95.24%NM 89.23%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.77%6.7%2026-11-11 16:55