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Utah Valley Wolverines v Tarleton State Texans

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah Valley Wolverines (Local)

Prediction 59.80%1.67fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -5.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.59%60.17%59.80%61.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.571.561.6265.79%63.75%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tarleton State Texans (Visit)

Prediction 40.20%2.49fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.58%39.83%40.20%40.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.362.352.4243.48%42.42%42.55%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Utah Valley Wolverines (Local): 59.80%; Tarleton State Texans (Visit): 40.20%. For Tarleton State Texans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.42, with an expected value of -2.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.13%E -1.93%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.52%E -1.47%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 18:59
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 19:00
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.12%E -3.89%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-12 18:59
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 19:00
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -6.33%E -2.72%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 19:00
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 19:00
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -9.11%E -5.99%K -17.51%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -2.71%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-12 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-03-12 18:59