Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah Utes v Arizona Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

83%

17%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah Utes (Local)

Prediction 83.49%1.20fair odd

EV -2.32%

Edge -1.98%

Kelly -13.64%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

82.16%83.52%83.33%85.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.101.131.131.1790.91%88.73%88.89%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 16.51%6.06fair odd

EV +3.20%

Edge +0.511%

Kelly +0.609%

Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

14.97%16.48%16.67%17.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.255.906.136.2519.05%16.96%16.33%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Utah Utes (Local): 83.49%; Arizona Wildcats (Visit): 16.51%. For Arizona Wildcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.06. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.66%E -5.01%K -43.52%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +3.20%E +0.511%K +0.609%G +0.019%	4.5%	2026-02-28 23:25
Caesars🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.49%E -5.80%K -54.11%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +3.20%E +0.511%K +0.609%G +0.019%	5.3%	2026-02-28 23:28
Bally Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -7.33%E -6.60%K -66.62%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +3.20%E +0.511%K +0.609%G +0.019%	6.1%	2026-02-28 17:09
Unibet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -7.33%E -6.60%K -66.62%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +3.20%E +0.511%K +0.609%G +0.019%	6.1%	2026-02-28 17:14
BetRivers🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -8.16%E -7.42%K -81.63%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV +3.20%E +0.511%K +0.609%G +0.019%	6.9%	2026-02-28 17:14
Fliff🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.33%E -6.60%K -66.62%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.931%E -0.155%K -0.186%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-28 23:29
BetMGM🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -3.99%E -3.47%K -26.59%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -5.06%E -0.880%K -1.07%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-02-28 20:49
Fanatics🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -2.32%E -1.98%K -13.64%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -10.84%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-02-28 18:04
FanDuel🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.43%EV -5.66%E -5.01%K -43.52%G +0.000%	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -12.49%E -2.36%K -2.90%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-02-28 16:35
theScore Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -4.82%E -4.23%K -34.45%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -13.31%E -2.54%K -3.13%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-28 21:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.16I 86.21%NM 83.52%	5.88I 17.01%NM 16.48%	3.2%	2026-02-28 23:40
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 84.18%	5.32I 18.80%NM 15.82%	18.8%	2026-02-28 23:44