Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros v Northwestern St Demons

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Local)

Prediction 58.07%1.72fair odd
EV -5.92%
Edge -3.66%
Kelly -9.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.92%58.07%58.07%58.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.621.621.6262.11%61.86%61.73%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northwestern St Demons (Visit)

Prediction 41.93%2.39fair odd
EV -6.50%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -5.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.93%41.93%41.93%42.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.232.232.2344.84%44.84%44.84%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Local): 58.07%; Northwestern St Demons (Visit): 41.93%. For UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.62, with an expected value of -5.92%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.92%E -3.66%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.50%E -2.92%K -5.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-10 15:55
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.92%E -3.66%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.50%E -2.92%K -5.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-10 15:55
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -6.50%E -4.04%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -6.50%E -2.92%K -5.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%4.0%2026-03-10 15:55