Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UNLV Rebels v Fresno St Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

83%

17%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UNLV Rebels (Local)

Prediction 82.56%1.21fair odd

EV -3.40%

Edge -2.91%

Kelly -20.02%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

82.16%82.56%82.19%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.141.131.1789.29%88.11%88.50%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fresno St Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 17.44%5.73fair odd

EV -2.34%

Edge -0.419%

Kelly -0.510%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.67%17.44%17.81%17.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.255.505.575.6019.05%18.18%17.94%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UNLV Rebels (Local): 82.56%; Fresno St Bulldogs (Visit): 17.44%. For Fresno St Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.60, with an expected value of -2.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Fanatics🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.02%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-03-08 23:59
theScore Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.88%E -5.16%K -42.00%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-08 23:59
Unibet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -6.71%E -5.93%K -51.58%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -2.34%E -0.419%K -0.510%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-08 23:59
Bally Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -6.71%E -5.93%K -51.58%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -2.34%E -0.419%K -0.510%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-09 00:00
BetRivers🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -7.53%E -6.72%K -62.76%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -2.34%E -0.419%K -0.510%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-09 00:00
Fliff🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.21%EV -7.53%E -6.72%K -62.76%G +0.000%	5.55I 18.02%NM 16.79%EV -3.22%E -0.580%K -0.707%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-03-09 00:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%	4.7%	2026-03-09 00:00