Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UNLV Rebels v Boise State Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 02:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UNLV Rebels (Local)

Prediction 72.04%1.39fair odd

EV -4.19%

Edge -3.15%

Kelly -12.70%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

71.43%72.04%72.04%72.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.311.301.3376.92%76.53%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boise State Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 27.96%3.58fair odd

EV -4.93%

Edge -1.45%

Kelly -2.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.81%27.96%27.96%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.253.353.353.4030.77%29.85%29.85%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UNLV Rebels (Local): 72.04%; Boise State Broncos (Visit): 27.96%. For UNLV Rebels (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.33, with an expected value of -4.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.19%E -3.15%K -12.70%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.93%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-04 21:10
Fanatics🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.63%E -4.30%K -18.17%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.93%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-03-05 02:25
BetRivers🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.35%E -4.89%K -21.17%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-04 21:35
Unibet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.35%E -4.89%K -21.17%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-04 21:35
Bally Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.35%E -4.89%K -21.17%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -6.32%E -1.89%K -2.69%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-04 21:35
Fliff🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.35%E -4.89%K -21.17%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.12%E -2.81%K -4.05%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-03-04 21:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	0.8%	2026-03-05 02:20