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UNLV Rebels v Arizona St Sun Devils

2026-11-11 02:30 UTC — WNCAAB

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UNLV Rebels (Local)

Prediction 26.82%3.73fair odd
EV +4.62%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.59%
Growth +0.073%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.42%26.82%26.82%29.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.223.453.223.9031.06%29.01%31.06%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit)

Prediction 73.18%1.37fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -8.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.77%73.18%73.18%75.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.311.331.3379.37%76.53%75.19%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: UNLV Rebels (Local): 26.82%; Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit): 73.18%. For UNLV Rebels (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.90, producing a positive expected value of +4.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.62%E +1.18%K +1.59%G +0.073%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.80%E -6.19%K -30.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-10 19:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV -13.62%E -4.23%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -2.68%E -2.01%K -8.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-10 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV -13.62%E -4.23%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -2.68%E -2.01%K -8.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-10 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27%1.0%2026-11-10 19:40
Novig◎2.63I 38.02%NM 32.74%1.28I 78.13%NM 67.26%16.1%2026-11-10 19:35

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