Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UIC Flames v Evansville Purple Aces

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

75%

25%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UIC Flames (Local)

Prediction 75.38%1.33fair odd

EV -2.00%

Edge -1.54%

Kelly -6.68%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.49%75.38%74.70%78.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.271.281.3083.33%78.95%78.13%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Evansville Purple Aces (Visit)

Prediction 24.62%4.06fair odd

EV +10.79%

Edge +2.40%

Kelly +3.08%

Growth +0.332%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.05%24.62%25.30%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.403.733.604.5029.41%26.85%27.78%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UIC Flames (Local): 75.38%; Evansville Purple Aces (Visit): 24.62%. For Evansville Purple Aces (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Fanatics🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -9.54%E -7.95%K -47.71%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +10.79%E +2.40%K +3.08%G +0.332%	5.6%	2026-03-12 23:09
Fliff🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.53%E -5.26%K -27.20%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -6.45%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-12 23:15
BetMGM🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.27%E -3.36%K -15.80%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.68%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-12 23:15
Unibet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -2.00%E -1.54%K -6.68%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -15.06%E -4.37%K -6.15%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-12 23:15
Bally Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -2.00%E -1.54%K -6.68%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -15.06%E -4.37%K -6.15%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-12 23:15
BetRivers🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -2.76%E -2.14%K -9.51%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -16.30%E -4.79%K -6.79%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-12 23:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%	11.2%	2026-03-12 23:15