Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCLA Bruins v Iowa Hawkeyes

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 18:27 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

85%

15%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCLA Bruins (Local)

Prediction 85.10%1.18fair odd

EV -3.84%

Edge -3.40%

Kelly -29.54%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

83.81%85.02%85.30%87.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.111.111.1393.46%90.25%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Hawkeyes (Visit)

Prediction 14.90%6.71fair odd

EV +7.30%

Edge +1.01%

Kelly +1.18%

Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 7.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.94%14.98%14.70%16.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.856.386.307.2017.09%15.69%15.87%13.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCLA Bruins (Local): 85.10%; Iowa Hawkeyes (Visit): 14.90%. For Iowa Hawkeyes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.71. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Fliff🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.06%EV -8.95%E -8.36%K -127.80%G +0.000%	7.20I 13.89%NM 12.94%EV +7.30%E +1.01%K +1.18%G +0.086%	7.3%	2026-03-08 18:24
DraftKings🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.10%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +0.596%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001%	4.1%	2026-03-08 18:24
Caesars🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.54%E -4.99%K -50.39%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.596%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001%	4.9%	2026-03-08 18:22
BetMGM🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.69%E -4.19%K -39.10%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.13%E -0.482%K -0.569%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-08 18:14
theScore Bet🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.39%E -5.81%K -63.93%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -3.13%E -0.482%K -0.569%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-08 18:15
Unibet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.60%EV -5.54%E -4.99%K -50.39%G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -9.09%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-08 18:25
Bally Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.60%EV -5.54%E -4.99%K -50.39%G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -9.09%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-08 18:24
BetRivers🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -6.39%E -5.81%K -63.93%G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -9.09%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-03-08 18:24
FanDuel🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.17%EV -5.54%E -4.99%K -50.39%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -12.07%E -2.05%K -2.46%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-08 18:20
Fanatics🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.81%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.54%G +0.000%	5.85I 17.09%NM 16.19%EV -12.82%E -2.19%K -2.64%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-08 18:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.14I 87.72%NM 86.74%	7.46I 13.40%NM 13.26%	1.1%	2026-03-08 18:14
Kalshi◎	1.12I 89.29%NM 87.29%	7.69I 13.00%NM 12.71%	2.3%	2026-03-08 18:24