Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCF Knights v West Virginia Mountaineers

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

96%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCF Knights (Local)

Prediction 3.72%26.87fair odd

EV +15.37%

Edge +0.496%

Kelly +0.512%

Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.16%3.80%3.72%4.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

21.0026.0026.0031.004.76%3.85%3.85%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Virginia Mountaineers (Visit)

Prediction 96.28%1.04fair odd

EV -2.76%

Edge -2.73%

Kelly -275.87%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

95.41%96.20%96.28%96.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.26%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCF Knights (Local): 3.72%; West Virginia Mountaineers (Visit): 96.28%. For UCF Knights (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	31.00I 3.23%NM 3.16%EV +15.37%E +0.496%K +0.512%G +0.079%	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.84%EV -2.76%E -2.73%K -275.87%G +0.000%	2.2%	2026-02-25 23:03
theScore Bet🎯	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV -3.24%E -0.125%K -0.130%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -2.76%E -2.73%K -275.87%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-02-25 23:50
FanDuel🎯	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV -3.24%E -0.125%K -0.130%G +0.000%	1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -3.72%E -3.72%K +0.000%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-02-25 19:04
Fanatics🎯	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -21.85%E -1.04%K -1.09%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -2.76%E -2.73%K -275.87%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-02-25 23:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.92%	1.02I 98.04%NM 96.08%	2.0%	2026-02-25 20:19
Novig◎	24.39I 4.10%NM 3.94%	1.00I 100.00%NM 96.06%	4.1%	2026-02-25 20:00