Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Tech Red Raiders v Kansas St Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (Local)

Prediction 65.13%1.54fair odd

EV +2.25%

Edge +1.43%

Kelly +3.94%

Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.95%64.63%65.27%66.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.461.431.5770.92%68.44%69.93%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas St Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 34.87%2.87fair odd

EV -2.35%

Edge -0.840%

Kelly -1.31%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.65%35.37%34.73%39.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.682.752.8040.82%37.31%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Tech Red Raiders (Local): 65.13%; Kansas St Wildcats (Visit): 34.87%. For Texas Tech Red Raiders (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV +2.25%E +1.43%K +3.94%G +0.089%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -14.56%E -5.94%K -10.04%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-05 16:20
DraftKings🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -1.66%E -1.10%K -3.25%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -7.93%E -3.00%K -4.84%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-05 17:00
Caesars🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.61%E -2.44%K -7.53%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.84%E -2.16%K -3.44%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-05 16:59
Fliff🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.61%E -2.44%K -7.53%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -12.81%E -5.13%K -8.54%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-05 16:45
Unibet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.87%E -4.80%K -15.98%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.10%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-05 16:45
Bally Bet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.87%E -4.80%K -15.98%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.10%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-05 16:45
theScore Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.52%E -5.30%K -17.91%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -2.35%E -0.840%K -1.31%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-05 16:55
BetRivers🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -7.52%E -5.30%K -17.91%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.10%E -1.49%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-05 16:45
FanDuel🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.35%EV -8.17%E -5.80%K -19.93%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV -3.05%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-05 16:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88%	3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%	3.1%	2026-03-05 17:00