Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Tech Red Raiders v Arizona St Sun Devils

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

79%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (Local)

Prediction 79.35%1.26fair odd

EV -1.61%

Edge -1.30%

Kelly -6.70%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.63%79.29%79.72%81.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.161.191.181.2486.21%84.21%84.75%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit)

Prediction 20.65%4.84fair odd

EV +8.43%

Edge +1.60%

Kelly +1.98%

Growth +0.167%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.22%20.71%20.28%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.004.644.605.2525.00%21.56%21.74%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Tech Red Raiders (Local): 79.35%; Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit): 20.65%. For Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.84. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -7.16%E -6.12%K -42.14%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +8.43%E +1.60%K +1.98%G +0.167%	4.5%	2026-03-01 19:29
BetMGM🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.37%E -5.40%K -35.39%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +3.26%E +0.653%K +0.816%G +0.027%	4.7%	2026-03-01 17:04
Fliff🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -7.96%E -6.86%K -49.73%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -0.868%E -0.181%K -0.228%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-01 19:30
Unibet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.37%E -5.40%K -35.39%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -5.00%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-01 18:00
Bally Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.37%E -5.40%K -35.39%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -5.00%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-01 18:00
BetRivers🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.16%E -6.12%K -42.14%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -5.00%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-01 17:59
Fanatics🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -1.61%E -1.30%K -6.70%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -12.23%E -2.88%K -3.76%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-01 16:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.20%E -2.62%K -14.53%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -17.39%E -4.35%K -5.80%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-01 17:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.87%	4.76I 21.01%NM 20.13%	4.3%	2026-03-01 19:09