Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Longhorns v Oregon Ducks

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 22:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Longhorns (Local)

Prediction 96.98%1.03fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -204.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
96.26%96.98%96.61%98.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.001.001.01100.00%99.67%100.00%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oregon Ducks (Visit)

Prediction 3.02%33.14fair odd
EV +53.89%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.581%

assuming max odds 51.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.92%3.02%3.39%3.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
26.0035.1728.5051.003.85%2.84%3.51%1.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Longhorns (Local): 96.98%; Oregon Ducks (Visit): 3.02%. For Oregon Ducks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 33.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 51.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +53.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 98.08%EV -3.02%E -3.02%K +0.000%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.92%EV +53.89%E +1.06%K +1.08%G +0.581%2.0%2026-03-22 22:04
Caesars🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.61%EV -3.02%E -3.02%K +0.000%G +0.000%28.50I 3.51%NM 3.39%EV -14.00%E -0.491%K -0.509%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 22:02
theScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -2.05%E -2.03%K -204.76%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV -21.55%E -0.829%K -0.862%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-22 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.00I 100.00%NM 98.04%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.96%2.0%2026-03-22 22:05