The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Tennessee Volunteers v Alabama Crimson Tide

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 01:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tennessee Volunteers (Local)

Prediction 62.47%1.60fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -4.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.79%62.26%62.35%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.521.501.5667.11%65.98%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit)

Prediction 37.53%2.66fair odd
EV -0.547%
Edge -0.206%
Kelly -0.331%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%37.74%37.65%40.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.522.502.6543.10%39.72%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tennessee Volunteers (Local): 62.47%; Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit): 37.53%. For Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -0.547%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.55%E -1.63%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.18%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 19:49
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -2.55%E -1.63%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -12.93%E -5.57%K -9.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 20:44
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.42%E -2.89%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.18%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 19:24
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -5.67%E -3.75%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -0.922%E -0.349%K -0.562%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -6.29%E -4.20%K -12.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -0.547%E -0.206%K -0.331%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 20:15
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.29%E -4.20%K -12.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 18:50
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.29%E -4.20%K -12.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.92%E -4.64%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.18%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-05 18:50
Fliff🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.92%E -4.64%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.05%E -3.29%K -5.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-06 01:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.94%2.70I 37.04%NM 37.06%-0.1%2026-03-06 01:10
Novig◎1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%8.4%2026-03-06 00:50