Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs v Tarleton State Texans

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 20:00 UTC

Final: TCU Horned Frogs 89–42 Tarleton State Texans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

94%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs (Local)

Prediction 94.39%1.06fair odd

EV -4.66%

Edge -4.62%

Kelly -466.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

94.39%94.39%94.39%94.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.011.011.0199.01%99.01%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tarleton State Texans (Visit)

Prediction 5.61%17.83fair odd

EV -4.66%

Edge -0.274%

Kelly -0.292%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.61%5.61%5.61%5.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

17.0017.0017.0017.005.88%5.88%5.88%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TCU Horned Frogs (Local): 94.39%; Tarleton State Texans (Visit): 5.61%. For Tarleton State Texans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 17.00, with an expected value of -4.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.66%E -4.62%K -466.41%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -4.66%E -0.274%K -0.292%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-08 19:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 99.01%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.99%	1.0%	2026-11-08 19:50

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