Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs v Iowa State Cyclones

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs (Local)

Prediction 76.99%1.30fair odd

EV -2.23%

Edge -1.75%

Kelly -8.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.44%77.17%76.63%79.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.231.231.2783.33%81.37%81.63%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa State Cyclones (Visit)

Prediction 23.01%4.35fair odd

EV +9.31%

Edge +1.96%

Kelly +2.48%

Growth +0.231%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.17%22.83%23.37%24.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.904.113.984.7525.64%24.33%25.16%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TCU Horned Frogs (Local): 76.99%; Iowa State Cyclones (Visit): 23.01%. For Iowa State Cyclones (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -7.61%E -6.35%K -38.07%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +9.31%E +1.96%K +2.48%G +0.231%	4.4%	2026-02-22 19:30
DraftKings🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -6.84%E -5.66%K -32.59%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +5.86%E +1.27%K +1.63%G +0.095%	4.4%	2026-02-22 17:35
FanDuel🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.84%E -5.66%K -32.59%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.65%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-22 19:29
BetMGM🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -2.23%E -1.75%K -8.24%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -7.95%E -1.99%K -2.65%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-02-22 19:00
theScore Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.07%E -4.98%K -27.61%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.95%E -1.99%K -2.65%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-22 18:24
Unibet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.06%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.10%E -2.30%K -3.09%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-02-22 18:15
Bally Bet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.06%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.10%E -2.30%K -3.09%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-02-22 18:15
Fliff🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -6.07%E -4.98%K -27.61%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.10%E -2.30%K -3.09%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-02-22 20:54
Fanatics🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.23%E -1.75%K -8.24%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.25%E -2.63%K -3.54%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-02-22 18:55
BetRivers🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.06%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -10.25%E -2.63%K -3.54%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-22 18:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%	1.9%	2026-02-22 20:20