Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs v Baylor Bears

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 21:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

79%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs (Local)

Prediction 78.93%1.27fair odd

EV -1.34%

Edge -1.07%

Kelly -5.37%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.48%78.89%79.53%80.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.151.211.211.2586.96%82.85%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baylor Bears (Visit)

Prediction 21.07%4.75fair odd

EV +3.26%

Edge +0.665%

Kelly +0.836%

Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.01%21.11%20.47%23.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.004.384.254.9025.00%22.86%23.53%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TCU Horned Frogs (Local): 78.93%; Baylor Bears (Visit): 21.07%. For Baylor Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.75. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -9.23%E -8.03%K -61.56%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV +3.26%E +0.665%K +0.836%G +0.027%	7.4%	2026-03-01 18:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -7.66%E -6.54%K -45.03%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV +1.15%E +0.240%K +0.303%G +0.003%	6.3%	2026-03-01 16:14
Caesars🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -5.29%E -4.41%K -26.44%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +0.099%E +0.021%K +0.026%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-01 17:58
DraftKings🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.50%E -3.72%K -21.42%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -0.955%E -0.203%K -0.258%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-03-01 20:54
Fanatics🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -4.50%E -3.72%K -21.42%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -8.33%E -1.92%K -2.49%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-01 20:59
Fliff🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -5.29%E -4.41%K -26.44%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -12.55%E -3.02%K -3.98%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-01 20:59
BetMGM🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -1.34%E -1.07%K -5.37%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -13.60%E -3.32%K -4.39%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-01 20:54
Unibet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -2.92%E -2.37%K -12.70%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -15.71%E -3.93%K -5.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-01 20:04
Bally Bet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -2.92%E -2.37%K -12.70%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -15.71%E -3.93%K -5.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-01 20:04
BetRivers🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.71%E -3.04%K -16.86%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.71%E -3.93%K -5.24%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-01 20:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%	2.0%	2026-03-01 20:44
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 83.28%	4.98I 20.08%NM 16.72%	20.1%	2026-03-01 19:04