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St. John's Red Storm v Xavier Musketeers

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 21:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. John's Red Storm (Local)

Prediction 77.51%1.29fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -3.14%
Kelly -16.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.21%77.65%77.52%78.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.211.211.2484.03%82.34%82.64%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Xavier Musketeers (Visit)

Prediction 22.49%4.45fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.268%
Kelly +0.345%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.29%22.35%22.48%22.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.254.204.5024.39%23.53%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. John's Red Storm (Local): 77.51%; Xavier Musketeers (Visit): 22.49%. For Xavier Musketeers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.44%E -4.46%K -24.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +1.21%E +0.268%K +0.345%G +0.004%4.2%2026-03-06 15:15
Fliff🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -7.76%E -6.52%K -40.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -1.04%E -0.237%K -0.306%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 20:30
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.89%E -3.14%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.42%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-06 19:55
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.89%E -3.14%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-06 20:50
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -6.21%E -5.14%K -29.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:50
Bally Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -6.21%E -5.14%K -29.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:50
theScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -6.21%E -5.14%K -29.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 20:55
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.99%E -5.82%K -34.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 19:55
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.21%E -5.14%K -29.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-06 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.35%2.7%2026-03-06 21:00
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 80.99%4.26I 23.47%NM 19.01%23.5%2026-03-06 19:55