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Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.15
assuming max odds 5.25
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (Local): 82.03%; Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit): 17.97%. For Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.25, with an expected value of -5.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.66%E -4.93%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.66%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-11 21:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.49% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.51% | 2.7% | 2026-11-11 21:20 |
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