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South Dakota Coyotes v UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

Kickoff: 2026-11-06 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Dakota Coyotes (Local)

Prediction 80.41%1.24fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -8.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.49%80.41%80.41%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.151.131.2289.29%87.26%88.50%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit)

Prediction 19.59%5.11fair odd
EV +9.69%
Edge +1.73%
Kelly +2.11%
Growth +0.204%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.67%19.59%19.59%22.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.305.605.6023.81%18.87%17.86%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Dakota Coyotes (Local): 80.41%; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit): 19.59%. For UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.11. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -9.13%E -8.08%K -70.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV +9.69%E +1.73%K +2.11%G +0.204%6.4%2026-11-06 16:30
Bally Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -9.13%E -8.08%K -70.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV +9.69%E +1.73%K +2.11%G +0.204%6.4%2026-11-06 16:30
BetRivers🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -9.94%E -8.87%K -82.82%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV +9.69%E +1.73%K +2.11%G +0.204%7.1%2026-11-06 16:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -9.13%E -8.08%K -70.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +7.73%E +1.41%K +1.72%G +0.133%6.7%2026-11-06 16:30
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -1.90%E -1.56%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -17.73%E -4.22%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-06 16:52
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%1.0%2026-11-06 16:20

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