Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SMU Mustangs v Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

97%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SMU Mustangs (Local)

Prediction 3.22%31.09fair odd

EV +15.79%

Edge +0.439%

Kelly +0.451%

Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.73%3.22%3.22%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

26.0031.0031.0036.003.85%3.23%3.23%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit)

Prediction 96.78%1.03fair odd

EV -2.25%

Edge -2.23%

Kelly -224.85%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

96.30%96.78%96.78%97.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.001.001.01100.00%99.50%99.50%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SMU Mustangs (Local): 3.22%; Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Visit): 96.78%. For SMU Mustangs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 31.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	36.00I 2.78%NM 2.73%EV +15.79%E +0.439%K +0.451%G +0.071%	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.27%EV -2.25%E -2.23%K -224.85%G +0.000%	1.8%	2026-02-22 22:35
Fanatics🎯	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV -16.37%E -0.630%K -0.655%G +0.000%	1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -3.22%E -3.22%K +0.000%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-02-22 20:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	33.33I 3.00%NM 2.97%	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.03%	1.0%	2026-02-22 19:25