Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego St Aztecs v North Texas Mean Green

Kickoff: 2026-11-05 19:03 UTC

Final: San Diego St Aztecs 73–57 North Texas Mean Green

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

74%

26%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego St Aztecs (Local)

Prediction 73.94%1.35fair odd

EV -3.87%

Edge -2.98%

Kelly -12.91%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.94%73.94%73.94%78.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.271.281.3083.33%78.74%78.13%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Texas Mean Green (Visit)

Prediction 26.06%3.84fair odd

EV +12.82%

Edge +2.96%

Kelly +3.85%

Growth +0.494%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.70%26.06%26.06%27.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.453.763.604.3328.99%26.62%27.78%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego St Aztecs (Local): 73.94%; North Texas Mean Green (Visit): 26.06%. For North Texas Mean Green (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
William Hill🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -11.27%E -9.39%K -56.33%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +12.82%E +2.96%K +3.85%G +0.494%	6.4%	2026-11-05 18:59
BetMGM🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.09%E -4.80%K -22.56%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -0.990%E -0.260%K -0.354%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-05 18:59
Unibet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.87%E -2.98%K -12.91%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-05 19:00
Bally Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.87%E -2.98%K -12.91%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-05 19:00
BetRivers🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -5.35%E -4.18%K -19.11%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -10.11%E -2.93%K -4.13%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-11-05 19:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.45I 68.97%NM 61.02%	2.27I 44.05%NM 38.98%	13.0%	2026-11-05 19:00