Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sam Houston St Bearkats v Liberty Flames

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 16:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

45%

55%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sam Houston St Bearkats (Local)

Prediction 44.66%2.24fair odd

EV -1.74%

Edge -0.791%

Kelly -1.45%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.86%44.94%44.66%47.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.962.062.102.2051.02%48.58%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liberty Flames (Visit)

Prediction 55.34%1.81fair odd

EV -0.947%

Edge -0.529%

Kelly -1.20%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.39%55.06%55.34%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.651.721.711.7960.61%58.00%58.48%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sam Houston St Bearkats (Local): 44.66%; Liberty Flames (Visit): 55.34%. For Liberty Flames (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.79, with an expected value of -0.947%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.74%E -0.791%K -1.45%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.69%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-12 16:30
theScore Bet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.64%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.57%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-12 16:29
FanDuel🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.64%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.03%E -4.19%K -10.34%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-12 16:30
Fliff🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.64%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-12 16:30
Unibet🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -11.57%E -5.84%K -11.80%G +0.000%	1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -0.947%E -0.529%K -1.20%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-12 16:30
Bally Bet🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -12.01%E -6.10%K -12.39%G +0.000%	1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -0.947%E -0.529%K -1.20%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-12 16:30
BetRivers🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -12.46%E -6.36%K -12.98%G +0.000%	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -1.50%E -0.843%K -1.92%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-12 16:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%	3.9%	2026-03-12 16:30