The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Penn State Nittany Lions v USC Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)

Prediction 12.17%8.22fair odd
EV +3.41%
Edge +0.401%
Kelly +0.454%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.09%12.24%12.06%13.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.957.527.008.5014.39%13.29%14.29%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USC Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 87.83%1.14fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -22.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.31%87.76%87.94%88.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.071.1194.34%92.78%93.46%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penn State Nittany Lions (Local): 12.17%; USC Trojans (Visit): 87.83%. For Penn State Nittany Lions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.22. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +3.41%E +0.401%K +0.454%G +0.015%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -5.14%E -4.76%K -64.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-25 17:05
theScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +3.41%E +0.401%K +0.454%G +0.015%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -6.90%E -6.51%K -114.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-25 16:40
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -2.68%E -0.335%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.90%E -6.51%K -114.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-25 16:09
DraftKings🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 12.43%EV -5.72%E -0.738%K -0.847%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 87.57%EV -3.38%E -3.07%K -33.82%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-25 22:55
BetMGM🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -14.84%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -2.50%E -2.26%K -22.76%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-25 21:10
Unibet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -14.84%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.02%E -5.62%K -85.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-25 20:35
BetRivers🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -14.84%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.02%E -5.62%K -85.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-25 20:34
Bally Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -14.84%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.02%E -5.62%K -85.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-25 20:35
Fliff🎯6.95I 14.39%NM 13.45%EV -15.45%E -2.22%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.55%EV -5.14%E -4.76%K -64.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎8.33I 12.00%NM 12.04%1.14I 87.72%NM 87.96%-0.3%2026-02-25 22:45
Novig◎8.26I 12.11%NM 10.80%1.00I 100.00%NM 89.20%12.1%2026-02-25 20:00