Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon Ducks v Purdue Boilermakers

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 01:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oregon Ducks (Local)

Prediction 82.00%1.22fair odd

EV -4.06%

Edge -3.47%

Kelly -23.88%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.07%81.90%82.19%83.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.131.161.171.1788.50%86.36%85.84%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Purdue Boilermakers (Visit)

Prediction 18.00%5.56fair odd

EV +2.60%

Edge +0.456%

Kelly +0.553%

Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.79%18.10%17.81%19.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.705.155.155.7021.28%19.44%19.42%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oregon Ducks (Local): 82.00%; Purdue Boilermakers (Visit): 18.00%. For Purdue Boilermakers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -5.70%E -4.96%K -38.00%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV +2.60%E +0.456%K +0.553%G +0.014%	4.5%	2026-03-04 17:20
Caesars🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.70%E -4.96%K -38.00%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -1.00%E -0.182%K -0.223%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-04 20:05
theScore Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -7.34%E -6.50%K -56.46%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -1.00%E -0.182%K -0.223%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-04 19:00
Fanatics🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.06%E -3.47%K -23.88%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.80%E -0.519%K -0.637%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-03-04 19:35
BetMGM🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.06%E -3.47%K -23.88%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.50%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-04 22:45
Fliff🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.58%EV -6.52%E -5.72%K -46.57%G +0.000%	5.05I 19.80%NM 18.42%EV -9.10%E -1.80%K -2.25%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-05 00:20
Unibet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.06%E -3.47%K -23.88%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -13.60%E -2.83%K -3.58%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-04 18:20
Bally Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -4.06%E -3.47%K -23.88%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -13.60%E -2.83%K -3.58%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-04 18:20
BetRivers🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -4.88%E -4.21%K -30.50%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -14.50%E -3.05%K -3.87%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-03-04 18:20
FanDuel🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -4.06%E -3.47%K -23.88%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -15.40%E -3.28%K -4.16%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-04 18:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19%	6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81%	1.2%	2026-03-05 01:25
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 82.64%	4.76I 21.01%NM 17.36%	21.0%	2026-03-04 23:50