Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ohio State Buckeyes v USC Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ohio State Buckeyes (Local)

Prediction 63.66%1.57fair odd

EV -2.60%

Edge -1.70%

Kelly -4.90%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.03%63.90%62.95%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.471.471.5370.92%68.07%68.03%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USC Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 36.34%2.75fair odd

EV +5.38%

Edge +1.85%

Kelly +2.83%

Growth +0.152%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.03%36.10%37.05%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.662.632.9040.00%37.55%38.10%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ohio State Buckeyes (Local): 63.66%; USC Trojans (Visit): 36.34%. For USC Trojans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -8.96%E -6.27%K -20.84%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +5.38%E +1.85%K +2.83%G +0.152%	4.4%	2026-02-22 18:55
Unibet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -10.24%E -7.26%K -24.96%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV +1.74%E +0.623%K +0.969%G +0.017%	6.6%	2026-02-22 18:55
Bally Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -10.24%E -7.26%K -24.96%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV +1.74%E +0.623%K +0.969%G +0.017%	6.6%	2026-02-22 18:55
FanDuel🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.35%EV -10.24%E -7.26%K -24.96%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV +1.02%E +0.366%K +0.571%G +0.006%	6.9%	2026-02-22 18:14
BetMGM🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.51%E -3.00%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.71%E -1.40%K -2.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-02-22 17:20
Fanatics🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.60%E -1.70%K -4.90%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-02-22 18:30
Caesars🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -2.60%E -1.70%K -4.90%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -7.34%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-22 16:07
Fliff🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.69%E -5.30%K -17.09%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.34%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-02-22 18:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.60%E -1.70%K -4.90%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-02-22 15:55
BetRivers🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -5.14%E -3.45%K -10.49%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.16%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-02-22 15:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 63.62%	2.78I 35.97%NM 36.38%	-1.1%	2026-02-22 18:55
Novig◎	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.50%	3.13I 31.95%NM 29.50%	8.3%	2026-02-22 18:55