Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ohio State Buckeyes v Michigan Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ohio State Buckeyes (Local)

Prediction 36.59%2.73fair odd

EV +2.47%

Edge +0.880%

Kelly +1.37%

Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.27%36.46%36.72%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.592.552.8040.00%38.64%39.22%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 63.41%1.58fair odd

EV -2.99%

Edge -1.95%

Kelly -5.64%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.03%63.54%63.28%65.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.461.491.481.5368.49%66.93%67.34%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ohio State Buckeyes (Local): 36.59%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 63.41%. For Ohio State Buckeyes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV +2.47%E +0.880%K +1.37%G +0.034%	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -7.43%E -5.09%K -16.15%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-02-25 15:59
Caesars🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.19%E -0.442%K -0.703%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -6.16%E -4.16%K -12.83%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-25 16:10
Fanatics🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.85%E -1.87%K -3.03%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.99%E -1.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-02-25 19:04
FanDuel🎯	2.58I 38.76%NM 36.30%EV -5.59%E -2.16%K -3.54%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.70%EV -6.79%E -4.62%K -14.46%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-25 16:15
BetMGM🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.68%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -2.99%E -1.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-25 16:10
Unibet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.68%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.53%E -3.71%K -11.28%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-02-25 21:54
Bally Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.68%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.53%E -3.71%K -11.28%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-02-25 21:54
BetRivers🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.68%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.16%E -4.16%K -12.83%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-25 21:54
theScore Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.51%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.99%E -1.95%K -5.64%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-02-25 16:40
Fliff🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.51%E -3.41%K -5.68%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.16%E -4.16%K -12.83%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-02-25 18:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%	3.2%	2026-02-26 00:55
Novig◎	2.57I 38.91%NM 35.91%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.09%	8.4%	2026-02-26 00:30