Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ohio State Buckeyes v Indiana Hoosiers

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 19:39 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ohio State Buckeyes (Local)

Prediction 82.10%1.22fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -12.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.09%81.92%81.97%84.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.141.141.1990.91%87.80%87.72%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indiana Hoosiers (Visit)

Prediction 17.90%5.59fair odd
EV +7.43%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.110%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.49%18.08%18.03%20.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.375.256.0022.22%18.63%19.05%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ohio State Buckeyes (Local): 82.10%; Indiana Hoosiers (Visit): 17.90%. For Indiana Hoosiers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.59. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -9.70%E -8.81%K -96.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV +7.43%E +1.24%K +1.49%G +0.110%7.6%2026-03-05 19:34
Bally Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -9.70%E -8.81%K -96.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV +7.43%E +1.24%K +1.49%G +0.110%7.6%2026-03-05 19:35
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -9.70%E -8.81%K -96.95%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV +3.85%E +0.663%K +0.801%G +0.031%8.2%2026-03-05 19:35
Caesars🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -6.41%E -5.62%K -45.80%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +2.95%E +0.513%K +0.621%G +0.018%5.1%2026-03-05 19:32
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.95%E -3.37%K -23.23%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -6.00%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 19:35
theScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.41%E -5.62%K -45.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -6.00%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-05 19:29
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -5.59%E -4.86%K -37.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -12.27%E -2.50%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-05 19:35
Fliff🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.70%EV -4.77%E -4.11%K -29.81%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -13.16%E -2.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-05 19:30
BetMGM🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -2.31%E -1.94%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -19.43%E -4.32%K -5.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-05 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.12I 89.29%NM 88.15%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.85%1.3%2026-03-05 19:35
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 84.33%5.38I 18.59%NM 15.67%18.6%2026-03-05 19:29