Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northwestern Wildcats v Illinois Fighting Illini

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

10%

90%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northwestern Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 10.34%9.67fair odd

EV +13.75%

Edge +1.25%

Kelly +1.37%

Growth +0.189%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.64%10.36%10.08%12.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.759.038.5011.0012.90%11.07%11.76%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit)

Prediction 89.66%1.12fair odd

EV -3.17%

Edge -2.93%

Kelly -39.60%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

87.87%89.64%89.92%91.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.061.061.0897.09%94.74%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northwestern Wildcats (Local): 10.34%; Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit): 89.66%. For Northwestern Wildcats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.67. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.75%E +1.25%K +1.37%G +0.189%	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.75%E -6.49%K -168.86%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-02-22 20:00
DraftKings🎯	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV +8.58%E +0.817%K +0.903%G +0.077%	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -4.96%E -4.68%K -82.69%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-02-22 20:00
FanDuel🎯	10.20I 9.80%NM 9.17%EV +5.48%E +0.537%K +0.595%G +0.033%	1.03I 97.09%NM 90.83%EV -7.65%E -7.43%K -255.03%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-22 20:00
Unibet🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.10%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.96%E -4.68%K -82.69%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-22 20:00
Bally Bet🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.10%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.96%E -4.68%K -82.69%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-22 20:00
BetRivers🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -12.10%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.86%E -5.58%K -117.16%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-22 20:00
Fliff🎯	8.45I 11.83%NM 11.05%EV -12.62%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.95%EV -5.86%E -5.58%K -117.16%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-02-22 19:59
Fanatics🎯	7.90I 12.66%NM 12.03%EV -18.31%E -2.32%K -2.65%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.97%EV -3.17%E -2.93%K -39.60%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-02-22 20:00
BetMGM🎯	7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -19.86%E -2.56%K -2.94%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.87%EV -4.06%E -3.80%K -58.07%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-22 20:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%	1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17%	1.7%	2026-02-22 20:00