Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v Virginia Tech Hokies

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 72.32%1.38fair odd

EV -2.37%

Edge -1.75%

Kelly -6.76%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.97%72.46%72.20%74.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.301.301.3578.74%76.75%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit)

Prediction 27.68%3.61fair odd

EV +5.18%

Edge +1.36%

Kelly +1.85%

Growth +0.096%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.34%27.54%27.80%29.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.453.403.8030.30%28.99%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 72.32%; Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit): 27.68%. For Virginia Tech Hokies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -6.71%E -5.20%K -23.12%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +5.18%E +1.36%K +1.85%G +0.096%	3.8%	2026-03-06 20:55
DraftKings🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.26%E -4.01%K -16.97%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.356%E -0.099%K -0.137%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-07 00:25
Fliff🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.65%EV -8.15%E -6.42%K -30.19%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -1.74%E -0.490%K -0.682%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-06 23:10
Caesars🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.26%E -4.01%K -16.97%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.12%E -0.893%K -1.25%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-07 00:24
Unibet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.98%E -4.60%K -19.94%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-06 16:35
Bally Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.98%E -4.60%K -19.94%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-06 16:35
BetRivers🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -6.71%E -5.20%K -23.12%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-06 23:05
Fanatics🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -2.37%E -1.75%K -6.76%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-06 18:35
theScore Bet🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.26%E -4.01%K -16.97%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-06 16:25
FanDuel🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.98%E -4.60%K -19.94%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-06 16:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%	3.1%	2026-03-07 00:14
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 76.85%	3.32I 30.12%NM 23.15%	30.1%	2026-03-06 19:00