The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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North Carolina Tar Heels v Duke Blue Devils

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 40.34%2.48fair odd
EV +0.845%
Edge +0.338%
Kelly +0.563%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%40.46%39.85%43.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.272.5045.45%43.12%43.96%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Duke Blue Devils (Visit)

Prediction 59.66%1.68fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.839%
Kelly +2.04%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.41%59.54%60.15%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.611.7065.36%62.50%62.11%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 40.34%; Duke Blue Devils (Visit): 59.66%. For Duke Blue Devils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -11.26%E -5.12%K -9.38%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV +1.43%E +0.839%K +2.04%G +0.029%4.3%2026-03-01 16:49
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.22%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.35%E -2.07%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 16:54
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.17%E -0.478%K -0.808%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.94%E -2.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-01 16:54
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -10.05%E -4.51%K -8.17%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -3.94%E -2.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 16:19
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -10.05%E -4.51%K -8.17%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -3.94%E -2.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 16:05
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -10.05%E -4.51%K -8.17%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -3.94%E -2.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 16:19
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.19%E -1.33%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.14%E -3.23%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 16:34
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -9.24%E -4.11%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.14%E -3.23%K -8.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 16:49
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.845%E +0.338%K +0.563%G +0.005%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.72%E -5.70%K -16.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 16:29
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -3.19%E -1.33%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.72%E -5.70%K -16.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 16:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%3.0%2026-03-01 17:00