The School of College Oddsodds.college
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New Mexico Lobos v Fresno St Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico Lobos (Local)

Prediction 75.35%1.33fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.985%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.32%75.16%75.35%76.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.271.3181.97%79.10%78.74%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fresno St Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 24.65%4.06fair odd
EV +1.06%
Edge +0.259%
Kelly +0.342%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.36%24.84%24.65%26.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.743.654.1028.17%26.77%27.40%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Mexico Lobos (Local): 75.35%; Fresno St Bulldogs (Visit): 24.65%. For Fresno St Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.81%E -4.65%K -23.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +1.06%E +0.259%K +0.342%G +0.004%4.4%2026-03-03 20:45
theScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.07%E -6.62%K -36.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -1.40%E -0.351%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 20:45
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.30%E -3.39%K -15.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -10.03%E -2.75%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 19:25
Bally Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.30%E -3.39%K -15.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -10.03%E -2.75%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 19:25
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -1.29%E -0.985%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -11.26%E -3.13%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-03 21:30
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.06%E -4.01%K -19.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.26%E -3.13%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-03 19:25
Fliff🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.65%EV -4.30%E -3.39%K -15.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -12.50%E -3.52%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 01:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-03-03 23:00