Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan Wolverines v Oregon Ducks

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

84%

16%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan Wolverines (Local)

Prediction 84.18%1.19fair odd

EV -3.19%

Edge -2.78%

Kelly -21.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

83.33%84.17%84.39%84.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.101.131.131.1590.91%88.89%88.50%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oregon Ducks (Visit)

Prediction 15.82%6.32fair odd

EV -1.13%

Edge -0.181%

Kelly -0.216%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.07%15.83%15.61%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.605.945.936.2517.86%16.84%16.88%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan Wolverines (Local): 84.18%; Oregon Ducks (Visit): 15.82%. For Oregon Ducks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.25, with an expected value of -1.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -3.19%E -2.78%K -21.28%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV -6.67%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-03-06 16:35
Caesars🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.03%E -3.54%K -28.81%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.04%E -1.57%K -1.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-06 16:39
BetMGM🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.87%E -4.31%K -37.50%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.13%E -0.181%K -0.216%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-06 15:20
Fanatics🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.87%E -4.31%K -37.50%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.13%E -0.181%K -0.216%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-06 21:25
Unibet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.87%E -4.31%K -37.50%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -9.04%E -1.57%K -1.90%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-06 20:50
Bally Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.87%E -4.31%K -37.50%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -9.04%E -1.57%K -1.90%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-06 20:50
BetRivers🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.72%E -5.10%K -47.64%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.42%E -2.04%K -2.48%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-06 20:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.56%E -5.91%K -59.62%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -5.09%E -0.848%K -1.02%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-07 00:09
Fliff🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.28%EV -6.56%E -5.91%K -59.62%G +0.000%	5.95I 16.81%NM 15.72%EV -5.88%E -0.988%K -1.19%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-07 01:10
FanDuel🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -7.40%E -6.73%K -74.00%G +0.000%	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -1.92%E -0.310%K -0.370%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-06 21:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29%	6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71%	1.9%	2026-03-07 01:09
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 86.28%	6.29I 15.90%NM 13.72%	15.9%	2026-03-07 00:10