Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan Wolverines v Louisville Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan Wolverines (Local)

Prediction 64.15%1.56fair odd

EV -3.14%

Edge -2.08%

Kelly -6.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%64.14%63.92%66.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.471.471.5169.93%68.07%68.03%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 35.85%2.79fair odd

EV +0.383%

Edge +0.137%

Kelly +0.213%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.96%35.86%36.08%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.682.672.8040.00%37.30%37.38%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan Wolverines (Local): 64.15%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 35.85%. For Louisville Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.383%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -6.34%E -4.34%K -13.79%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV +0.383%E +0.137%K +0.213%G +0.001%	4.2%	2026-03-26 23:04
Unibet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.98%E -4.82%K -15.52%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +0.383%E +0.137%K +0.213%G +0.001%	4.7%	2026-03-27 16:54
Bally Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -7.63%E -5.30%K -17.33%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +0.383%E +0.137%K +0.213%G +0.001%	5.2%	2026-03-27 16:55
BetMGM🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.06%E -3.42%K -10.54%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.20%E -1.19%K -1.88%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-26 13:19
BetRivers🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.27%E -5.78%K -19.23%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -3.20%E -1.19%K -1.88%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-27 16:54
Fliff🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -8.27%E -5.78%K -19.23%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-03-27 16:54
FanDuel🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -4.42%E -2.97%K -9.02%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -5.35%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-27 19:40
Caesars🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -3.14%E -2.08%K -6.15%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-28 00:29
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.78%E -2.52%K -7.55%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-27 08:20
Fanatics🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.78%E -2.52%K -7.55%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-27 17:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%	2.1%	2026-03-28 02:00
Novig◎	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.55%	2.58I 38.76%NM 36.45%	6.3%	2026-03-28 02:24