Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

McNeese Cowgirls v Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 21:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

McNeese Cowgirls (Local)

Prediction 70.65%1.42fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -10.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.18%70.83%70.80%73.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.321.311.3678.74%75.76%76.34%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Visit)

Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV +1.27%
Edge +0.368%
Kelly +0.518%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.91%29.17%29.20%29.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.313.333.4531.25%30.19%30.08%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: McNeese Cowgirls (Local): 70.65%; Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Visit): 29.35%. For Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Fliff🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -10.28%E -8.09%K -38.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV +1.27%E +0.368%K +0.518%G +0.007%7.7%2026-03-12 19:20
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -0.198%E -0.058%K -0.083%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 17:10
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -0.198%E -0.058%K -0.083%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 17:10
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -1.67%E -0.497%K -0.709%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 17:05
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.63%E -3.43%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.13%E -0.950%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-12 14:55
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.92%E -2.88%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 15:40
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.92%E -2.88%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 16:40
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.75%E -5.11%K -21.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.33I 75.19%NM 71.46%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.54%5.2%2026-03-12 21:00