Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marshall Thundering Herd v South Alabama Jaguars

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 17:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marshall Thundering Herd (Local)

Prediction 67.98%1.47fair odd

EV -3.47%

Edge -2.45%

Kelly -8.27%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.51%67.98%67.98%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.381.371.4273.53%72.60%73.26%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Alabama Jaguars (Visit)

Prediction 32.02%3.12fair odd

EV -3.93%

Edge -1.31%

Kelly -1.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.19%32.02%32.02%32.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.952.982.983.0033.90%33.61%33.61%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marshall Thundering Herd (Local): 67.98%; South Alabama Jaguars (Visit): 32.02%. For Marshall Thundering Herd (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.42, with an expected value of -3.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Fanatics🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.47%E -2.45%K -8.27%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.53%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-06 17:29
Unibet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.87%E -5.02%K -18.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-06 17:29
Bally Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.55%E -5.55%K -20.98%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-06 17:30
BetRivers🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.55%E -5.55%K -20.98%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -5.53%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-06 17:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%	5.9%	2026-03-06 17:30